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Modelling cost-effective pathways for natural gas infrastructure: A southern Brazil case study

Author

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  • García Kerdan, Iván
  • Jalil-Vega, Francisca
  • Toole, James
  • Gulati, Sachin
  • Giarola, Sara
  • Hawkes, Adam

Abstract

Currently, natural gas in Brazil represents around 12.9% of the primary energy supply, with consistent annual growth during the last decade. However, Brazil is entering a time of uncertainty regarding future gas supply, mainly as import from Bolivia is being renegotiated. As such, diversification of gas supply sources and routes need to be considered. Energy systems and infrastructure models are essential tools in assisting energy planning decisions and policy programmes at regional and international levels. In this study, a novel combination of a simulation-based integrated assessment model (MUSE-South_Brazil) and the recently-developed Gas INfrastructure Optimisation model (GINO) is presented. The Brazilian region represented by the five southern states served by the Bolivian gas pipeline (GASBOL) has been investigated. Modelled projections suggest that regional gas demand would increase from 38.8 mcm/day in 2015 to 104.3 mcm/day by 2050, mainly driven by the increasing demand in the industry and power sectors. Therefore existing regional gas infrastructure would be insufficient to cover future demands. Three different renegotiation scenarios between Brazil and Bolivia were modelled, obtaining distinct cost-optimal infrastructure expansion pathways. Depending on the scenario, the model expects gas demand to be covered by other supply options, such as an increase in pre-salt production, LNG imports and imports from a new Argentinian pipeline.

Suggested Citation

  • García Kerdan, Iván & Jalil-Vega, Francisca & Toole, James & Gulati, Sachin & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam, 2019. "Modelling cost-effective pathways for natural gas infrastructure: A southern Brazil case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:255:y:2019:i:c:s0306261919314862
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113799
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    Cited by:

    1. Sara Giarola & Alexander Kell & Sonja Sechi & Mattia Carboni & Alaize Dall-Orsoletta & Pierluigi Leone & Adam Hawkes, 2023. "Sustainability Education: Capacity Building Using the MUSE Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-22, July.
    2. Samuel Mathias do Amaral Junior & Janine Carvalho Padilha & Leonardo Arrieche, 2024. "Brazil’s New Gas Law: Analysis, Implications, and Remuneration of Gas Processing Plants with Non-Discriminatory Access to Customers," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 559-569, January.
    3. Moya, Diego & Budinis, Sara & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam, 2020. "Agent-based scenarios comparison for assessing fuel-switching investment in long-term energy transitions of the India’s industry sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).

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