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A multi-agent system to predict the outcome of a two-round election

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  • Charcon, D.Y.
  • Monteiro, L.H.A.

Abstract

Here, an agent-based model is developed to forecast the outcome of a three-party election in a two-round voting system. The vote of each agent is determined from four variables related to economic indicators, quality of public services, ethical conduct of the current administration, and political profile of the voting population. In addition, each agent can be influenced by the opinion of the nearest neighbors. Numerical simulations are performed to investigate how these variables affect the elected candidate. The proposed model is also used to reproduce the presidential elections held in Brazil in 2010 and in Uruguay in 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Charcon, D.Y. & Monteiro, L.H.A., 2020. "A multi-agent system to predict the outcome of a two-round election," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:apmaco:v:386:y:2020:i:c:s0096300320304409
    DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2020.125481
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Han, Wenchen & Gao, Shun & Huang, Changwei & Yang, Junzhong, 2022. "Non-consensus states in circular opinion model with repulsive interaction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
    2. Li, Bin-Quan & Wu, Zhi-Xi & Guan, Jian-Yue, 2022. "Alternating rotation of coordinated and anti-coordinated action due to environmental feedback and noise," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    3. Huang, Changwei & Bian, Huanyu & Han, Wenchen, 2024. "Breaking the symmetry neutralizes the extremization under the repulsion and higher order interactions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).

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