IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/anture/v86y2021ics0160738320302395.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Epidemiological susceptibility risk and tourist flows around the world

Author

Listed:
  • Mertzanis, Charilaos
  • Papastathopoulos, Avraam

Abstract

Global tourist flows have increased in recent decades, but so have the outbreak and spread of epidemics, with enormous social and economic costs for the tourism sector. These developments affect the tourists' decisions to travel through their perception of travel risk and safety. Tourists need to assess whether destinations can identify and manage epidemiological risks to improve travel safety. This paper responds to this challenge by constructing an index of epidemiological susceptibility risk using objective information on the quality of health, environmental safety and communications infrastructures, demographics, economic activity, and institutional governance. The index appears to be a significant predictor of inbound tourist flows and occasionally of outbound flows. The effect on inbound flows is stronger in larger countries and weaker for outbound flows. It remains robust after applying sensitivity and endogeneity tests and economic and non-economic controls. The index could potentially provide a useful policy tool for predicting and managing the implications of epidemics on the tourism industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Mertzanis, Charilaos & Papastathopoulos, Avraam, 2021. "Epidemiological susceptibility risk and tourist flows around the world," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:86:y:2021:i:c:s0160738320302395
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2020.103095
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160738320302395
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.annals.2020.103095?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Theodore Metaxas & Laura Juárez & Meletios Andrinos, 2022. "Measuring the Impact of Greece as a Safe Branding Tourist Destination: Evidence from Spain and Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Yu, Ling & Zhao, Pengjun & Tang, Junqing & Pang, Liang, 2023. "Changes in tourist mobility after COVID-19 outbreaks," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Boto-García, David, 2023. "Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Davide Provenzano & Serena Volo, 2022. "Tourism recovery amid COVID-19: The case of Lombardy, Italy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(1), pages 110-130, February.
    5. Alina-Cerasela Aluculesei & Puiu Nistoreanu & Daniel Avram & Bogdan Gabriel Nistoreanu, 2021. "Past and Future Trends in Medical Spas: A Co-Word Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Storonyanska, Iryna & Dub, Andrii & Grafska, Oryslava & Hrynchyshyn, Iryna & Bilanyuk, Olha & Pierscieniak, Agata, 2021. "The tourist infrastructure of local communities in Ukraine: current state and impact on local economic development," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 7(2), June.
    7. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Drakos, Konstantinos & Kapopoulos, Panayotis, 2022. "Predicting international tourist arrivals in Greece with a novel sector-specific business leading indicator," MPRA Paper 113860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Alessandro Bitetto & Paola Cerchiello & Charilaos Mertzanis, 2021. "A data-driven approach to measuring epidemiological susceptibility risk around the world," DEM Working Papers Series 200, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    9. Mihail Ovidiu Tănase & Răzvan Dina & Florin-Lucian Isac & Sergiu Rusu & Puiu Nistoreanu & Cosmin Nicolae Mirea, 2022. "Romanian Wine Tourism—A Paved Road or a Footpath in Rural Tourism?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-24, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemiological risk; Health; Tourist flows; Prediction; Institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z32 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Tourism and Development
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • O50 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:86:y:2021:i:c:s0160738320302395. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/annals-of-tourism-research/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.