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Adaptive nowcasting of arrivals during health crises

Author

Listed:
  • Eugenio-Martin, Juan L.
  • Cazorla-Artiles, José M.
  • Moreda, Adela
  • Murguia, Juan M.

Abstract

This paper develops a new methodology to nowcast the number of arrivals during health-related crises such as Covid-19. The methodology is adaptive, so that the relevance of different determinants varies over time by employing hurdles that work as ‘necessary travelling conditions’. It starts with a baseline series built upon a pre-Covid-19 trend. This series is adjusted by each hurdle. The first hurdle is the market closure; epidemiological models are applied to anticipate the dates of re-opening. The second hurdle deals with key travelling determinants such as the income effect. The third hurdle is the lack of confidence; this depends on the length of the recovery, and the expected path to follow.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugenio-Martin, Juan L. & Cazorla-Artiles, José M. & Moreda, Adela & Murguia, Juan M., 2023. "Adaptive nowcasting of arrivals during health crises," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:101:y:2023:i:c:s0160738323000828
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2023.103609
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