Modeling the water budget in a deep caldera lake and its hydrologic assessment: Lake Ikeda, Japan

The hydrologic assessment of a lake water budget can be helpful in achieving proper water management and sustainable water use. A model to analyze a lake water budget was developed and verified for Lake Ikeda, Japan. Lake evaporation was estimated by numerical analyses of lake water temperature and the lake energy budget. Inflow from the lake catchment area and leakage from the lake bottom were estimated based on the tank model and Darcy's law, and the model parameters were optimized by the shuffled complex evolution method. The estimated monthly lake evaporation rate is consistent with the evaporation rate estimated by the energy budget Bowen ratio method based on in situ data from 2004 to 2005. Moreover, the calculated time series of daily lake levels agrees well with those of measured lake levels during 1983 to 1999. Thus, the model is useful for evaluating the lake water budget. Numerical analysis reveals seasonal and annual variation characteristics in the water budget components. Precipitation, inflow from the catchment area, and river water supply are generally high during the rainy season from June to July with substantial annual variation. Lake evaporation is greatest in October and least in April, but the annual variation is relatively small. Agricultural water use is relatively high from April to September. There are no marked seasonal changes in leakage and drinking water use. The lake level is generally highest in September and lowest in March, which is characterized by seasonal changes in water budget components. The model was also applied to 17-year simulations under hypothetical hydrologic conditions to examine the effect of water use and agricultural water management on the lake level. Results indicate that river water supply, provided under the agricultural water management system, effectively compensates for the decrease in lake water resulting from agricultural water use.