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Assessment of water demand reliability using SWAT and RIBASIM models with respect to climate change and operational water projects

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  • Ahmadzadeh, Hojat
  • Mansouri, Bahareh
  • Fathian, Farshad
  • Vaheddoost, Babak

Abstract

Reliability assessment in the allocation of water resources under the changing climate condition has invaluable importance in planning the water demand at the basin scale. This study details an integrated framework for evaluation of the reliability between water supply and demand under climate change scenarios in the Zarrineh Rood River basin in the northwest of Iran. Initially, recorded climatic data in six synoptic stations are downscaled and projected for the period 2020–2040 based on the 14 GCMs using the LARS-WG method. Afterwards, the SWAT model is used to simulate the basin hydrology with consideration to the baseline and future climate periods at six hydrometric stations. Finally, the available water is allocated using the RIBASIM model based on the current supply-demand chain and predefined governmental water allocation rules for different sectors. Results showed that under climate change, the total runoff of the basin and the entrance catchments to the Zarrineh Rood River dam would decrease about 8% and 28%, respectively. The reliability of the water supply for joint drinking-industrial and agricultural demands would also decrease from 96.4% to 93.4%, and 90.2–89.5%, respectively. As such, the average annual streamflow from the Zarrineh Rood River ending to Lake Urmia will reduce by 10% if the operational water projects remain active.

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  • Ahmadzadeh, Hojat & Mansouri, Bahareh & Fathian, Farshad & Vaheddoost, Babak, 2022. "Assessment of water demand reliability using SWAT and RIBASIM models with respect to climate change and operational water projects," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:261:y:2022:i:c:s0378377421006545
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107377
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    3. Zhang, Y.F. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Zhai, X.B. & Ma, Y., 2024. "Improving efficiency and sustainability of water-agriculture-energy nexus in a transboundary river basin under climate change: A double-sided stochastic factional optimization method," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    4. Masoud Zanjani & Omid Bozorg-Haddad & Mustafa Zanjani & Ali Arefinia & Masoud Pourgholam-Amiji & Hugo A. Loáiciga, 2024. "Estimating the riverine environmental water demand under climate change with data mining models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(12), pages 11451-11464, September.

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