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Distinguishing between trend-break models: method and empirical evidence

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  • CHIH-CHIANG HSU
  • CHUNG-MING KUAN

Abstract

We demonstrate that in time trend models, the likelihood-based tests of partial parameter stability have size distortions and cannot be applied to detect the changing pa-rameter. A two-step procedure is then proposed to distinguish between different trend-break models. This procedure involves consistent estimation of break dates and properly-sized tests for changing coefficient. In the empirical study of the Nelson­Plosser data set, we find that the estimated change points and trend-break specifications resulting from the proposed procedure are quite different from those of Perron (1989, 1997), Chu and White (1992), and Zivot and Andrews (1992). In another application, our procedure provides formal support for the con-clusion of Ben-David and Papell (1995) that real per capita GDPs of most OECD countries exhibit a slope change in trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Chih-Chiang Hsu & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2001. "Distinguishing between trend-break models: method and empirical evidence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:4:y:2001:i:2:p:1
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohitosh Kejriwal, 2020. "A Robust Sequential Procedure for Estimating the Number of Structural Changes in Persistence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(3), pages 669-685, June.
    2. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "A two‐step procedure for testing partial parameter stability in cointegrated regression models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 219-237, March.
    3. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 167-180.
    4. Durmaz, Nazif & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Hyejin & Sun, Yanfei, 2023. "Trend Breaks and the Persistence of Closed-End Mutual Fund Discounts," MPRA Paper 117789, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "The dynamic relationship between real exchange rates, real interest rates and foreign exchange reserves: empirical evidence from China," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 639-651.
    6. Nazif Durmaz & Hyeongwoo Kim & Hyejin Lee & Yanfei Sun, 2023. "Trend Breaks and the Persistence of Closed-End Fund Discounts," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-08, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    7. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2011. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(1), pages 79-100, January.
    8. Hsu, Chih-Chiang, 2008. "A note on tests of partial parameter stability in the cointegrated system," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 500-503, June.

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