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Terms of trade and output fluctuations in Colombia

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  • Hernández, Gonzalo

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of the terms of trade on output fluctuations in Colombia, a developing country where as much as 62% of export earnings come from just four commodities: oil (42%), coal (14%), coffee (5%), and nickel (1%). This research was prompted by: the particular role of short-run fluctuations in developing economies, the fact that the Colombian terms of trade are procyclical, and the discussion on economic policies towards sterilization of the effects of commodity prices. Following time series analysis for the period 1994 -2011, robust evidence was found indicating that around one third of Colombia's quarterly growth is attributable to changes in the terms of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernández, Gonzalo, 2013. "Terms of trade and output fluctuations in Colombia," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:36988
    Note: Includes bibliography.
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    File URL: http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/36988
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    Cited by:

    1. Brenda Guevara & Gabriel Rodríguez & Lorena Yamuca Salvatierra, 2024. "External Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Peru: Empirical Evidence using Mixture Innovation TVP-VAR-SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2024-529, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

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