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Using Generalized Linear Model to Determine the Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Egyptian Public Budget

Author

Listed:
  • Hamdy Ahmad Aly Alhendawya

    (Department of Economic, Faculty of Commerce, Mansoura University, Egypt,)

  • Mohammed Galal Abdallah Mostafa

    (Department of Economic, Faculty of Commerce, Mansoura University, Egypt,)

  • Sozan Galal Elkananib

    (Department of Economic, Higher Institute of Administrative Science, Belqas, Egypt.)

  • Neveen Mohsen Ahamed Zakic

    (Department of Applied Statistics and Insurance, Faculty of Commerce, Mansoura University, Egypt.)

  • Mousa Gowfal Selmeya

    (Department of Economic, Faculty of Commerce, Mansoura University, Egypt,)

Abstract

Oil is regarded as one of the most significant energy sources in the world due to the enormous impacts it has on the level of the economy as a whole in both developing and developed countries and for both producing and importing countries. so, this study aims to know the effects of fluctuations in oil prices on the Egyptian public budget during the period from 2000 to 2022. For this purpose, the study used the GLM(Generalized linear Model) model, which is one of the first studies to use this model in economics. The study concluded that oil price fluctuations negatively affect the public budget, which means that there is a positive relationship between oil price fluctuations and the general budget deficit in Egypt as a result of Egypt being one of its importing countries. Therefore, the rise in oil prices leads to an increase in the public budget deficit, and its low prices may contribute to a decrease in this deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamdy Ahmad Aly Alhendawya & Mohammed Galal Abdallah Mostafa & Sozan Galal Elkananib & Neveen Mohsen Ahamed Zakic & Mousa Gowfal Selmeya, 2023. "Using Generalized Linear Model to Determine the Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Egyptian Public Budget," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 92-99, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-02-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Udoma Johnson Afangideh & Augustine Ujunwa & Angela Ifeanyi Ukemenam, 2018. "Oil prices, armed conflict and government revenue in Nigeria," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(5), pages 1196-1210, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hamdy Ahmad Aly Alhendawy & Mohammed Galal Abdallah Mostafa & Mohamed Ibrahim Elgohari & Ibrahim Abdalla Abdelraouf Mohamed & Nabil Medhat Arafat Mahmoud & Mohamed Ahmed Mohamed Mater, 2023. "Determinants of Renewable Energy Production in Egypt New Approach: Machine Learning Algorithms," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 679-689, November.
    2. Sultan Yahya Abbas Natto, 2024. "The Impact of Fluctuating Oil Revenues on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 245-253, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; public budget; Egypt; Generalized linear Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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