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Oil Price Changes and Stock Market Performance in UAE: Evidence of Cointegration Persists in Economic Diversification era

Author

Listed:
  • Rachna Banerjee

    (Department of Business, Higher Colleges of Technology, Dubai Women s, Al Qusais, PO box 16062-Dubai, UAE,)

  • Sudipa Majumdar

    (Symbiosis School of Economics, Symbiosis International University, Senapati Bapat Road, Pune-411004, India)

  • Zahra Mohammed

    (Higher Colleges of Technology, Dubai Women s, Al Qusais, P.O Box 16062, Dubai, UAE)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine the linkages between stock market index, Dubai Fateh oil spot price, interest rate and FDI using monthly data on Abu Dhabi stock index for the period 2006- 2019. Vector Autoregressive Model have been employed to analyse the relationship between the variables. Using monthly data from 2006 to 2019, the results of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimates suggest that there is long-run integration between oil price and monthly stock index series in which monthly oil prices have a positive impact on stock index. The Granger Causality indicates significant bidirectional causality running from ADX index, oil price and EIBOR. Meanwhile there is unidirectional causality from stock market index to FDI. Furthermore, Impulse Response Function was employed to examine market response to oil price shocks and our study reveals that UAE stock market is efficient as it responds immediately to the oil shock. These findings are relevant for investors for portfolio management and for the policymakers such that more aggressive economic diversification policies are initiated to wane the significant persistent oil-stock integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Rachna Banerjee & Sudipa Majumdar & Zahra Mohammed, 2023. "Oil Price Changes and Stock Market Performance in UAE: Evidence of Cointegration Persists in Economic Diversification era," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 552-561, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-01-58
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets: Dynamic connectedness under the prism of recent geopolitical and economic unrest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-26.
    3. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1815-1825, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdullah M. H. Alharbi, 2023. "Oil Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Stock Returns: A Case of Oil-based Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 56-63, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price; stock market index; interest rate; ADX Index; United Arab Emirates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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