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Relationship between Oil and Stock Markets: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange

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  • Muhammad Hanif

    (College of Business Administration, Ajman University, UAE. Author holds Noor Professorship in Islamic Banking and Finance at Ajman University.)

Abstract

This study documents the impact of price variations in global markets, specifically oil, on stock returns at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). We select three global markets (oil, gold and currency exchange) and two PSX indices [conventional and Islamic] for a period 2009-20 to provide evidence. Monthly data for the selected time series is used for analysis. Analysis techniques include descriptive statistics, stationarity testing, Johansen cointegration, correlation and regression analysis. Findings suggest joint long-run co-movements of selected markets. Regression results indicate the significance of oil prices at 1% level, with positive signs, in the stock return generation process at PSX [for both indices conventional and Islamic]. Other selected markets (gold and currency exchange) are although significant but at a higher degree, with negative signs. For the oil market, results confirm the demand-pull inflation hypothesis in Pakistani market. Results also confirm shifting to gold market by investors in the period of reductions in stock returns. Finally, depreciation of domestic currency discourages investors in buying stocks. We recommend investors to have an eye on oil, gold and currency markets while making investment decisions at PSX. We also recommend to policymakers to take timely actions for exchange rate stability, to avoid the outflow of capital. To the best of our knowledge, this is the only study documenting the influence of global markets on stock returns at PSX in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Hanif, 2020. "Relationship between Oil and Stock Markets: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 150-157.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2020-05-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Taufeeque Ahmad Siddiqui & Haseen Ahmed & Mohammad Naushad & Uzma Khan, 2023. "The Relationship between Oil Prices and Exchange Rate: A Systematic Literature Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 566-578, May.
    2. Khairulla Massadikov, 2021. "Volatility Spillovers between Oil Prices and Stock Returns in Developing Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 121-126.
    3. Sugra Humbatova & Afag Huseyn & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2023. "Impact of Oil Factor on Investment: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 129-148, March.
    4. Ahmad, Nasir & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Does inter-region portfolio diversification pay more than the international diversification?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 26-35.
    5. Nisful Laila & Aam S. Rusydiana & Muhamad Iqbal Irfany & Imron HR & Popon Srisusilawati & Muhamad Taqi, 2021. "Energy Economics in Islamic Countries: A Bibliometric Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 88-95.
    6. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhou, Huiting & Kang, Jie & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "The skewness of oil price returns and equity premium predictability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Gold market; exchange rate; Stock market; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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