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Hybrid Grey Forecasting Model for Iran s Energy Consumption and Supply

Author

Listed:
  • Hamidreza Mostafaei

    (Department of Economics Energy, Institute for International Energy Studies, Shahid Rajaei Teacher Training University, Tehran, Iran)

  • Shaghayegh Kordnoori

    (Statistics Expert of Research Institute for ICT, Tehran, Iran)

Abstract

Grey theory deals with systems that are characterized by poor information or for which information is lacking. This study presents an improved grey GM (1, 1) model, using a technique that combines residual modification with Markov Chain model. We use energy consumption and supply of Iran to test the accuracy of proposed model. The results show that the Markov Chain residual modification model achieves reliable and precise results.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamidreza Mostafaei & Shaghayegh Kordnoori, 2012. "Hybrid Grey Forecasting Model for Iran s Energy Consumption and Supply," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 97-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2012-03-2
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Fatih Bayramoglu, 2016. "Future Electricity Demand of the Emerging European Countries and the CIS Countries," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 5(6), pages 15-23, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Grey Forecasting Model; Markov Chain; Energy System;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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