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The Export Supply Model of Bangladesh: An Application of Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • MD. Moniruzzaman

    (Deputy Secretary to the Government of Bangladesh, Bangladesh)

  • Mahmudul Mannan Toy

    (Department of Business Administration Shanto-Mariam University of Creative Technology Dhaka, Bangladesh.)

  • A. B. M. Rashedul Hassan

    (Treasurer, Atish-Dipankar University of Science and Technology Dhaka, Bangladesh.)

Abstract

The broad objective of this study is to empirically estimate the export supply model of Bangladesh. The techniques of cointegration, Engle-Granger causality and Vector Error Correction are applied to estimate the export supply model. The econometric analysis is done by using the time series data of the variables of interest which is collected from various secondary sources. The study has empirically tested the hypothesis, long run relationship and casualty between variables of the model. The cointegration analysis shows that all the variables of the study are co-integrated at their first differences meaning that there exists long run relationship among the variables. The VECM estimation shows the dynamics of variables in the export supply function and the short run and long run elasticities of export supply with respect to each independent variable. The error correction term is found negative which indicates that any short run disequilibrium will be turned into equilibrium in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • MD. Moniruzzaman & Mahmudul Mannan Toy & A. B. M. Rashedul Hassan, 2011. "The Export Supply Model of Bangladesh: An Application of Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Approaches," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 163-171.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2011-04-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amelia U. Santos‐Paulino, 2004. "Trade Liberalization and the Balance of Payments in Selected Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(1), pages 100-118, January.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    6. Amelia Santos-Paulino & A. P. Thirlwall, 2004. "The impact of trade liberalisation on exports, imports and the balance of payments of developing countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages 50-72, February.
    7. Mohammad A. Hossain & Mohammad Alauddin, 2005. "Trade liberalization in Bangladesh: the process and its impact on macro variables particularly export expansion," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 39(1), pages 127-150, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mabeta, Joshua, 2015. "Determinants of Non-Traditional Agricultural Exports Growth in Zambia: A Case of Cotton and Tobacco," Research Theses 243450, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Engine of Growth; Cointegration; Granger Causality; VECM; VAR; Impulse Response.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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