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The Demand for Money: A Dynamic Rational Expectations Model

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  • Cuthbertson, Keith
  • Taylor, Mark P

Abstract

This paper presents and estimates a model of the demand for money which explicitly incorporates foward-looking behavior. A multiperiod, rational expectations, quadratic costs of adjustment problem is solved using the discrete time calculus of variations to yield a money demand equation which is both foward-looking and contains a lagged dependent variable, and nests partial adjustment and error correction alternatives. The equation is estimated jointlywith a vector autoregression for the forcing variables, subject to cross-equation restrictions in an attempt to circumvent the R. E. Lucas_(1976) critique, on U. K. data for narrow money, MI. The results are encouraging. Copyright 1987 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuthbertson, Keith & Taylor, Mark P, 1987. "The Demand for Money: A Dynamic Rational Expectations Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 65-76, Supplemen.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:97:y:1987:i:388a:p:65-76
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. K Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2001. "Consumption, money and lending: a joint model for the UK household sector," Bank of England working papers 134, Bank of England.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2003_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2000. "The representative household’s demand for money in a cointegrated VAR model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 162-176.
    4. Robert Amano & Tony S. Wirjanto, "undated". "The Dynamic Behaviour of Canadian Imports and the Linear-Quadratic Model: Evidence Based on the Euler Equation," Staff Working Papers 94-6, Bank of Canada.
    5. Alejandro Francisco Peláez Ruiz-Fornells, 2009. "The symetry underlymg real interest rate behaviour and the limk to investment flows: an ex ante formal treatment," Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales 09-03, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    6. Ordonez, Javier, 2003. "Stability and non-linear dynamics in the broad demand for money in Spain," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 139-146, January.
    7. Lauri Kajanoja, 2004. "Money as an indicator variable for monetary policy when money demand is forward looking," Macroeconomics 0405003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Fanelli, Luca, 2002. "A new approach for estimating and testing the linear quadratic adjustment cost model under rational expectations and I(1) variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 117-139, January.
    9. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2005. "How does political violence affect confidence in a local currency? Evidence from Egypt," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(7), pages 841-866.
    10. Calza, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2006. "Non-linear dynamics in the euro area demand for M1," Working Paper Series 592, European Central Bank.
    11. Jyh-Lin Wu & Yu-Hau Hu, 2007. "Currency substitution and nonlinear error correction in Taiwan's demand for broad money," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(13), pages 1635-1645.
    12. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Khan, Mohsin S., 1996. "Foreign currency deposits and the demand for money in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 101-118, June.
    13. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    14. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Money demand, adjustment costs, and forward-looking behavior," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 153-173, April.
    15. Calza, Alessandro & Zaghini, Andrea, 2009. "Nonlinearities In The Dynamics Of The Euro Area Demand For M1," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, February.
    16. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
    17. Kajanoja, Lauri, 2003. "Money as an indicator variable for monetary policy when money demand is forward looking," Research Discussion Papers 9/2003, Bank of Finland.
    18. Martin Schmidt, 2007. "The long and short of money: short-run dynamics within a structural model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 175-192.
    19. John Ashworth & David Barlow & Lynne Evans, 2014. "Sectoral Money Demand Behaviour and the Welfare Cost of Inflation in the UK," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(6), pages 732-750, December.
    20. Daiki Maki & Shin-ichi Kitasaka, 2015. "Residual-based tests for cointegration with three-regime TAR adjustment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1013-1054, May.
    21. Chen, Show-Lin & Tsai, Li-Ju & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2004. "A revisit to liquidity effects--evidence from a non-linear approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 501-517, September.

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