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VERs and Expectations: Extensions and Evidence

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  • Winters, L Alan

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of an expected future voluntary export restraint on the level of firms' current exports to a market. The traditional result that current exports increase is shown to depend on the degree of collusion in the exporting industry and the anticipated restrictiveness of the VER. The former relationship is tested by reference to the effect of EC import surveillance on its imports. Surveillance is argued to indicate an increased probability of a VER in the future, and it is found that while competitive industries respond to it by increasing exports to the EC, less competitive ones curtail exports. This constitutes one of the few empirical tests of the strategic part of strategic trade policy. Copyright 1994 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Winters, L Alan, 1994. "VERs and Expectations: Extensions and Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 113-123, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:104:y:1994:i:422:p:113-23
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    Cited by:

    1. Greaney, Theresa M., 1999. "Manipulating market shares: The indirect effects of voluntary import expansions (VIEs)," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 95-113, January.
    2. Zhou, Dongsheng & Vertinsky, Ilan, 2002. "Can protectionist trade measures make a country better off? A study of VERs and minimum quality standards," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 227-236, March.

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