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Cyber resilience stress testing from a macroprudential perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Vermeulen, Robert
  • Sydow, Matthias
  • Brousse, Claire
  • Cascão, Fernando
  • Fique, Jose
  • Marques, Carla
  • Nyholm, Juho
  • Virel, Fleurilys

Abstract

Cyberattacks pose greater risk to financial stability than ever before as they have grown in both number and magnitude. A macroprudential perspective on cyber resilience stress testing is needed because cyber incidents can have a systemic impact as their effects spread across the financial sector via confidence, operational and financial mechanisms. While broader stress-testing principles also apply to cyber stress testing, stress testers need to focus in particular on clearly defining the overall objectives, determining the institutional perimeter, identifying material risk propagation channels, focusing on tail risks, considering relevant behavioural responses and combining the outcomes of bottom-up and top-down exercises. Based on these principles, cyber resilience stress tests can be executed following a bottom-up as well as a top-down approach. Top-down models can complement bottom-up results by providing harmonised modelling of system-wide financial interlinkages, behavioural responses and second-round effects. JEL Classification: G21, G28, D81, E58, C63

Suggested Citation

  • Vermeulen, Robert & Sydow, Matthias & Brousse, Claire & Cascão, Fernando & Fique, Jose & Marques, Carla & Nyholm, Juho & Virel, Fleurilys, 2025. "Cyber resilience stress testing from a macroprudential perspective," Macroprudential Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 27.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbmbu:2025:0027:1
    Note: 448291
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/financial-stability-publications/macroprudential-bulletin/html/ecb.mpbu202502_01~f4914a46c1.en.html
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cyberattacks; Financial Stability; Macroprudential Stress Testing; Risk Propagation; Systemic Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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