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Mapping the maze: a system-wide analysis of commercial real estate exposures and risks

Author

Listed:
  • Daly, Pierce
  • Ryan, Ellen
  • Blicke, Oscar Schwartz

Abstract

This article analyses the complex linkages between commercial real estate (CRE) markets and the financial system. Examining data from a wide range of sources this article presents the first system-wide mapping of CRE exposures in the euro area. The exercise identifies several sectors – real estate companies, real estate investment funds and real estate investment trusts – with particularly large CRE exposures. Structural vulnerabilities among these key players increase their exposure to CRE market shocks and the likelihood that they could amplify these shocks. In the case of real estate investment funds, highlighting the need to develop a comprehensive macroprudential framework to address liquidity vulnerabilities. Moreover, the complexity of CRE exposures that arise from extensive debt and equity linkages between these key owners of CRE and their financiers adds a further layer of risk, with the potential to exacerbate uncertainty and feedback loops. Findings underline the importance of closely monitoring links between CRE and the financial system and continuing work to close data gaps related to these markets. JEL Classification: G21, G22, G23, G28, R33

Suggested Citation

  • Daly, Pierce & Ryan, Ellen & Blicke, Oscar Schwartz, 2024. "Mapping the maze: a system-wide analysis of commercial real estate exposures and risks," Macroprudential Bulletin, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbmbu:2024::1
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/financial-stability-publications/macroprudential-bulletin/html/ecb.mpbu202411_01~98f5aa8d45.en.html
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banks; commercial real estate; interconnectedness; leverage; liquidity mismatch; real estate companies; real estate investment funds; REITs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • R33 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets

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