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Using corporate earnings calls to forecast euro area labour demand

Author

Listed:
  • Foroni, Claudia
  • Schroeder, Christofer

Abstract

This box explores the use of corporate earnings calls as a novel, high-frequency source of data for nowcasting and forecasting labour demand in the euro area. Labour demand has started to show signs of cooling following its post-pandemic peak. By applying textual analysis to transcripts of earnings calls, we construct an indicator that correlates strongly with the euro area job vacancy rate. This metric enables us to produce timely forecasts ahead of official data releases. Utilising a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regression approach, we use this indicator to forecast the job vacancy rate. We also produce forecasts based on Indeed online job posting data. Our findings indicate a sustained moderation in labour demand, suggesting that the job vacancy rate will hover at around 2.5% through mid-2025. This method makes assessments of labour demand both more timely and more accurate. JEL Classification: C22, C53, E37

Suggested Citation

  • Foroni, Claudia & Schroeder, Christofer, 2025. "Using corporate earnings calls to forecast euro area labour demand," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2025:0002:4
    Note: 3243564
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/economic-bulletin/focus/2025/html/ecb.ebbox202502_04~3283f1bc62.en.html
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    corporate earnings calls; job vacancy rate; labour demand; MIDAS models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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