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The increasing energy demand of artificial intelligence and its impact on commodity prices

Author

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  • Burian, Vlad
  • Stalla-Bourdillon, Arthur

Abstract

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) models has grown rapidly in recent years. This box explores how these models could affect energy demand in the future. Over the period from 2022 to 2026, the AI-related rise in global electricity consumption is projected to equal around 4% of the EU’s total electricity consumption and is likely to be met by either natural gas power plants or renewables. While this increase is significant in absolute terms, it is expected to have a limited impact on gas prices given the vast size of global natural gas markets. By contrast, the fragmented nature of national electricity markets means these markets are more vulnerable to AI-driven price pressures. JEL Classification: Q43, Q47, E31

Suggested Citation

  • Burian, Vlad & Stalla-Bourdillon, Arthur, 2025. "The increasing energy demand of artificial intelligence and its impact on commodity prices," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2025:0002:3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    AI; energy prices; natural gas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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