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Is the PMI a reliable indicator for nowcasting euro area real GDP?

Author

Listed:
  • de Bondt, Gabe
  • Saiz, Lorena

Abstract

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys are insightful because PMIs are released in advance of official hard data and are typically strongly correlated with these. This Box reports that after losing some predictive capacity during pandemic-related lockdowns and reopenings, the euro area composite output PMI is once again a reliable timely indicator for nowcasting euro area real GDP growth. JEL Classification: E32, E37

Suggested Citation

  • de Bondt, Gabe & Saiz, Lorena, 2024. "Is the PMI a reliable indicator for nowcasting euro area real GDP?," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2024:0001:2
    Note: 337418
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/economic-bulletin/focus/2024/html/ecb.ebbox202401_02~45de29a242.en.html
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nowcasting; Surveys;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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