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Decomposing market-based measures of inflation compensation into inflation expectations and risk premia

Author

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  • Burban, Valentin
  • De Backer, Bruno
  • Schupp, Fabian
  • Vladu, Andreea Liliana

Abstract

This box presents a model-based approach for distinguishing between two unobserved components embedded in market-based measures of inflation compensation, namely inflation expectations and inflation risk premia. The approach relies on econometric models used to analyse the term structure of inflation-linked swap rates. Estimates indicate that the rise in inflation compensation observed since mid-2020 is attributable more to inflation risk premia than to inflation expectations. This suggests that the rise is mainly related to a shift in the inflation risks priced in, from lower than expected to higher than expected. JEL Classification: E31, E43, E47

Suggested Citation

  • Burban, Valentin & De Backer, Bruno & Schupp, Fabian & Vladu, Andreea Liliana, 2022. "Decomposing market-based measures of inflation compensation into inflation expectations and risk premia," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 8.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2022:0008:4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Werner, Thomas, 2017. "The inflation risk premium in the post-Lehman period," Working Paper Series 2033, European Central Bank.
    2. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    3. Scott Joslin & Kenneth J. Singleton & Haoxiang Zhu, 2011. "A New Perspective on Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 926-970.
    4. Coenen, Günter & Karadi, Peter & Schmidt, Sebastian & Warne, Anders, 2018. "The New Area-Wide Model II: an extended version of the ECB’s micro-founded model for forecasting and policy analysis with a financial sector," Working Paper Series 2200, European Central Bank.
    5. Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Finite-Sample Properties of Percentile and Percentile-t Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 652-660, November.
    6. Mattias Villani, 2009. "Steady-state priors for vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 630-650.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations; Inflation-linked swaps; inflation risk premia; term structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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