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The role of speculation during the recent increase in EU emissions allowance prices

Author

Listed:
  • Ampudia, Miguel
  • Bua, Giovanna
  • Kapp, Daniel
  • Salakhova, Dilyara

Abstract

The price of emissions allowances traded on the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) has risen from below €10 per metric tonne of carbon to above €90 since the beginning of 2018. This box outlines the main reasons behind this increase and examines whether speculative activity may have played a significant role. It concludes that, at present, tangible evidence for a marked increase in speculative activity related to potential changes in market structure appears scarce. Furthermore, a speculation index suggests that, while speculation appears to have increased slightly since early 2019, it remains relatively moderate and well below readings during earlier phases of the ETS. JEL Classification: G12, G14, G38

Suggested Citation

  • Ampudia, Miguel & Bua, Giovanna & Kapp, Daniel & Salakhova, Dilyara, 2022. "The role of speculation during the recent increase in EU emissions allowance prices," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 3.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2022:0003:6
    Note: 2445760
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/economic-bulletin/focus/2022/html/ecb.ebbox202203_06~ca1e9ea13e.en.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sitarz, Joanna & Pahle, Michael & Osorio, Sebastian & Luderer, Gunnar & Pietzcker, Robert, 2023. "EU carbon prices signal high policy credibility and farsighted actors," EconStor Preprints 280455, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Joanna Sitarz & Michael Pahle & Sebastian Osorio & Gunnar Luderer & Robert Pietzcker, 2024. "EU carbon prices signal high policy credibility and farsighted actors," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 9(6), pages 691-702, June.
    3. Eslahi, Mohammadehsan & Mazza, Paolo, 2023. "Can weather variables and electricity demand predict carbon emissions allowances prices? Evidence from the first three phases of the EU ETS," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    4. Hideki Nishigaki, 2023. "The impact of rising EU Allowance prices on core inflation in the Eurozone," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 245-264, June.
    5. repec:crb:wpaper:2023-01 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ; ETS; EU Allowance prices; Price drivers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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