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Assessing short-term economic developments in times of COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Battistini, Niccolò
  • de Bondt, Gabe
  • De Santis, Roberto A.
  • Saiz, Lorena

Abstract

The exceptional contraction in economic activity induced by the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has warranted an update of the standard toolkit used to forecast euro area real GDP in real time. This box describes the adjustments and the additions to the standard toolkit developed by ECB staff to account for the dramatic change in statistical and economic relationships due to COVID-19. The use of each individual tool is subject to a considerable degree of judgment as to the type of adjustment needed to best capture the sharp movements in economic activity. These tools have provided helpful insights into forecasting euro area real GDP in real time, even if they imply some shortcomings. JEL Classification: C18, E27

Suggested Citation

  • Battistini, Niccolò & de Bondt, Gabe & De Santis, Roberto A. & Saiz, Lorena, 2021. "Assessing short-term economic developments in times of COVID-19," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 8.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2021:0008:3
    Note: 337418
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2021/html/ecb.ebbox202008_03~86b986a4f0.en.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Alessandro Borin, 2022. "A New Dataset for Local and National COVID-19-Related Restrictions in Italy," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 435-470, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; macroeconomic outlook; Short-term forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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