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Model-based risk analysis during the pandemic: introducing ECB-BASIR

Author

Listed:
  • Angelini, Elena
  • Darracq Pariès, Matthieu
  • Zimic, Srečko

Abstract

We augment the ECB-BASE model using the predictive dynamics of an SIR model in order to assess the interplay between epidemiological fundamentals, containment policies and the macroeconomy, investigating the macro impact of pandemic-related risk factors associated with a medical solution to the COVID‑19 crisis. JEL Classification: E1, E3, I1

Suggested Citation

  • Angelini, Elena & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Zimic, Srečko, 2021. "Model-based risk analysis during the pandemic: introducing ECB-BASIR," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2021:0001:4
    Note: 338657
    as

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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2021/html/ecb.ebbox202101_04~c4250012ae.en.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Angelini, Elena & Damjanović, Milan & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Zimic, Srečko, 2023. "Modelling pandemic risks for policy analysis and forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; ECB-BASE; Epidemic; modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

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