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Alternative scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Battistini, Niccolò
  • Stoevsky, Grigor

Abstract

This box presents illustrative ECB staff scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area. The unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the developments and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic warrants an analysis based on alternative scenarios. These illustrative ECB staff scenarios point to a drop in euro area GDP of between 5% and 12% in 2020. At its trough, quarterly real GDP growth could be as low as around -15% in the second quarter of 2020 under a severe scenario. JEL Classification: E21, E22, E33

Suggested Citation

  • Battistini, Niccolò & Stoevsky, Grigor, 2020. "Alternative scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 3.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2020:0003:1
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2020/html/ecb.ebbox202003_01~767f86ae95.en.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ayhan Kuloğlu, 2021. "Covıd-19 Krizinin Petrol Fiyatları Üzerine Etkisi," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 6(3), pages 710-727.
    2. Marija Bratić & Aleksandar Radivojević & Nenad Stojiljković & Olivera Simović & Emil Juvan & Miha Lesjak & Eva Podovšovnik, 2021. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? Tourists’ COVID-19 Risk Perception and Vacation Behavior Shift," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Sanchez Serrano, Antonio, 2022. "From Lost Turnover to Nonperforming Loans: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economy and on the Financial System," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 4(3), pages 99-164, April.
    4. Giovanni Pellegrino & Federico Ravenna & Gabriel Züllig, 2021. "The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations on the Effects of COVID‐19‐Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 841-869, August.
    5. Agata Balińska & Wioletta Olejniczak, 2021. "Experiences of Polish Tourists Traveling for Leisure Purposes during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-14, October.
    6. Miroslav Rončák & Petr Scholz & Ivica Linderová, 2021. "Safety Concerns and Travel Behavior of Generation Z: Case Study from the Czech Republic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-17, December.
    7. McQuinn, Kieran, 2020. "Property prices and Covid-19 related administrative closures: What are the implications?," Papers WP661, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Sanja Kovačić & Mihai Ciprian Mărgărint & Ruxandra Ionce & Đurđa Miljković, 2020. "What are the Factors affecting Tourist Behavior based on the Perception of Risk? Romanian and Serbian Tourists’ Perspective in the Aftermath of the recent Floods and Wildfires in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    9. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Priftis, Romanos & Angelini, Elena & Bańbura, Marta & Bokan, Nikola & Fagan, Gabriel & Gumiel, José Emilio & Kornprobst, Antoine & Lalik, Magdalena & Mo, 2024. "ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis," Occasional Paper Series 344, European Central Bank.
    10. Acocella, Nicola, 2020. "The Impact Of Coronavirus And The Policies Needed," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(4), pages 525-542.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Activity; COVID-19; Euro Area; Growth; Pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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