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Using information in newspaper articles as an indicator of real economic activity

Author

Listed:
  • Le Mezo, Helena
  • Ferrari Minesso, Massimo

Abstract

This box presents a simple indicator for US real economic activity based on the textual analysis of newspaper articles. The indicator correlates well with US contractions and NBER recession dates. In order to formally assess the predictive information content of the index, it is included in a regression framework in which US recessions are forecast. Results suggest that the index has good forecasting properties, outperforming a standard yield curve model at short horizons (up to eight months ahead). The text analysis index also improves the forecasting performance of standard yield curve models at longer horizons. Taken together, these results suggest that the index is useful for monitoring and predicting economic developments, particularly over short horizons. This approach also has the advantage of being easily updatable (on a daily basis) and applicable to different countries. JEL Classification: C1, C25, E32, E37

Suggested Citation

  • Le Mezo, Helena & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo, 2020. "Using information in newspaper articles as an indicator of real economic activity," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2020:0002:1
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2020/html/ecb.ebbox202002_01~eb87cc3192.en.html
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
    2. Akalan, Rodi & Brink, Siegrun & Icks, Annette & Wolter, Hans-Jürgen, 2023. "Bedrohungen und Chancen frühzeitig erkennen: Entwicklung eines Früherkennungskonzepts," IfM-Materialien 303, Institut für Mittelstandsforschung (IfM) Bonn.
    3. Daouia, Abdelaati & Abbas, Yasser, 2023. "Understanding World Economy Dynamics Based on Indicators and Events," TSE Working Papers 23-1461, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic activity; Textual analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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