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A stylised tracer for labour market cycles in the euro area based on assessments by corporate executives

Author

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  • Botelho, Vasco

Abstract

This box assesses the current cyclical position of the euro area labour market by means of a stylised tracer for employment and output fluctuations using the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey data. This tracer points towards a slowdown in the labour market since February 2018, with the services sector continuing to support employment growth in the euro area, while manufacturing employment has been in a downturn since May 2019. A more granular approach suggests the weakness in manufacturing is more prevalent in the capital goods and motor vehicles industries, while the resilience of the services sector is perceived to be broad-based across industries. Looking ahead downward risks stemming from the transmission of the weakness in manufacturing to the services sector may arise, strengthening the need for close monitoring of the euro area labour market. JEL Classification: E24

Suggested Citation

  • Botelho, Vasco, 2019. "A stylised tracer for labour market cycles in the euro area based on assessments by corporate executives," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 7.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2019:0007:3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Activity; Labour Market; Sectoral Developments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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