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The mechanical impact of changes in oil price assumptions on projections for euro area HICP energy inflation

Author

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  • Porqueddu, Mario

Abstract

Inflation projections are based on models, assumptions and expert judgement. These include assumptions regarding the future evolution of oil prices, which mainly affect energy prices. Oil prices and oil futures have moved down significantly since autumn 2018, below the assumptions of the December 2018 Eurosystem staff projections. This box documents the mechanical implications of this shift for the projections of the energy component of HICP inflation. JEL Classification: E31

Suggested Citation

  • Porqueddu, Mario, 2019. "The mechanical impact of changes in oil price assumptions on projections for euro area HICP energy inflation," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2019:0001:3
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2019/html/ecb.ebbox201901_03~a96bae18fe.en.html
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; Oil prices;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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