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The reliability of the preliminary flash estimate of euro area GDP

Author

Listed:
  • Forsells, Magnus
  • Kosekova, Stanimira

Abstract

Timely and reliable statistics are essential for economic analysis. This box reviews and assesses the reliability of Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate of quarterly GDP growth for the euro area, which was introduced at the beginning of 2016. It was a welcome development in terms of the continuous efforts to improve Europe’s statistical landscape given that the euro area’s single monetary policy is dependent on timely, reliable and comparable indicators that accurately reflect economic developments. To further support a more thorough analysis of macroeconomic developments at euro area level few challenges remain and some improvements are desirable such as the development of relevant euro area and country-level statistics soon after the end of the reference quarter. It is also important to enhance the quality of the source data that are used as inputs for preliminary flash estimates (e.g. short-term statistics on services). These improvements will ultimately increase the reliability of preliminary flash estimates and make them more useful, thereby facilitating more detailed economic analysis. JEL Classification: E01, E20

Suggested Citation

  • Forsells, Magnus & Kosekova, Stanimira, 2018. "The reliability of the preliminary flash estimate of euro area GDP," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2018:0002:5
    Note: 339042
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/other/ebbox201802_05.en.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    flash estimate; GDP; reliability; timeliness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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