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Can patterns of household purchases predict the outcome of US presidential elections?

Author

Listed:
  • Sabina Crowe

    (Northeastern University London)

  • Michael Gmeiner

    (London School of Economics)

  • Sebastian Ille

    (The American University in Cairo)

Abstract

We use NielsenIQ US retail scanner data to show that changes in sales patterns can be used to predict US presidential election results at the county level. Using a probit model, we regress 2016 election results against sales of various products six months prior to the election. We employ the results and the sales data for 2020 to forecast presidential election results in the same year. Comparison to actual election outcomes shows that our work correctly predicts election results in 86.47% of cases across 2,602 US counties. We further study how changes in the consumption of certain goods influences voter turnout as well as Democrat and Republican votes.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabina Crowe & Michael Gmeiner & Sebastian Ille, 2024. "Can patterns of household purchases predict the outcome of US presidential elections?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(3), pages 1181-1187.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-24-00358
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Elections; prediction; preferences; consumption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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