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An analysis of launch cost reductions for low Earth orbit satellites

Author

Listed:
  • Nodir Adilov

    (Purdue University Fort Wayne)

  • Peter Alexander

    (Federal Communications Commission)

  • Brendan Cunningham

    (Eastern Connecticut State University)

  • Nikolas Albertson

    (Purdue University Fort Wayne)

Abstract

We explore launch-cost reductions for satellites in low-Earth orbit and find that from 2000 to 2020 per-kilogram launch costs decreased at an average annual rate of 5.5%, while altitude-adjusted average launch costs per kilogram decreased by 4.4% annually. The altitude-adjusted annual rate of decrease was 7.5% for commercial satellites and 3.6% for non-commercial satellites. Regression analysis reveals that declining satellite mass induced an annual 10.4% reduction in average per-satellite launch costs over the period under study. At these rates, average launch costs to low-Earth orbit will fall below $1000 per kilogram between 2045 and 2076 and $100 per kilogram by the next century.

Suggested Citation

  • Nodir Adilov & Peter Alexander & Brendan Cunningham & Nikolas Albertson, 2022. "An analysis of launch cost reductions for low Earth orbit satellites," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1561-1574.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-22-00204
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2022/Volume42/EB-22-V42-I3-P130.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roger Pielke & Radford Byerly, 2011. "Shuttle programme lifetime cost," Nature, Nature, vol. 472(7341), pages 38-38, April.
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      More about this item

      Keywords

      launch cost; satellites; economics of space; space commerce.;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • L9 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities
      • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights

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