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Exploring spatial convergence of Maghreb regional areas: An application of a Markov chains approach

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandra Schaffar

    (Université de Toulon, Léad (France))

  • Nicolas Péridy

    (Université de Toulon, Léad (France))

Abstract

This paper explores the real convergence process of 360 regional areas in Maghreb countries using a non-parametric approach based on classical and spatial Markov chains. This approach investigates the long-term spatial associations between regional units. The advantage of this method is that is does not require the use of control variables which are very often non available at a disaggregated geographical level. We show that there is a trend of regional convergence of GDP per capita in Mena regions. However, this process is very slow and there is an important spatial clustering movement. We also show that although almost 75% of the regional areas seem to converge towards a higher GDP per capita level in the stationary state, 25% are trapped in low development trends. These results suggest that the economic performance of a given region strongly depends of that of its neighbor regions. This in turn implies reconsidering regional development policies within these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandra Schaffar & Nicolas Péridy, 2015. "Exploring spatial convergence of Maghreb regional areas: An application of a Markov chains approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(3), pages 1848-1855.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00453
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Maghreb countries; convergence; regional analysis; Markov chains; spatial analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling

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