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A neoclassical analysis of the Great Recession: a historical comparison

Author

Listed:
  • Keisuke Otsu

    (University of Kent)

  • Florian Gerth

    (University of Kent)

Abstract

In this paper we conduct a quantitative analysis to investigate the pattern of output loss during past banking crisis episodes by comparing the Great Recession, Great Depression and "Inter-Greats" periods. We find that during all periods output does not fully recover after 5 years from the onset of the banking crisis. However, while the output loss during the Great Recession was as large as that during the Great Depression, the output decline was much more gradual during the Great Recession. Moreover, a neoclassical growth model with productivity shocks can account for the Great Recession period extremely well compared to the Great Depression and Inter-Greats periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Keisuke Otsu & Florian Gerth, 2015. "A neoclassical analysis of the Great Recession: a historical comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2363-2373.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-15-00216
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2015/Volume35/EB-15-V35-I4-P237.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alex Klein & Keisuke Otsu, 2013. "Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period," Studies in Economics 1317, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    2. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    3. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006. "Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    5. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    6. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    8. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "The Great Depression in the United States from a neoclassical perspective," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 23(Win), pages 2-24.
    9. Mr. Abdul d Abiad & Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks & Ms. Irina Tytell & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan, 2009. "What’s the Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 2009/245, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gerth, Florian & Briggs, Chad M. & Diaz, John Francis T., 2024. "Exit and Entry Dynamics of UK Firms in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 123325, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2025.
    2. Florian Gerth, 2017. "Allocative efficiency of UK firms during the Great Recession," Studies in Economics 1714, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    3. Gerth, Florian, 2023. "Nexus between Financial Inclusion and Economic Activity: A Study about Traditional and Non-Traditional Financial Service Indicators Determining Financial Outreach," MPRA Paper 119265, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Recession; Total Factor Productivity; Neoclassical Growth Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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