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Exchange rate misalignments and economic growth: A threshold panel approach

Author

Listed:
  • Nabil Aflouk

    (University of Paris North)

  • Jacques Mazier

    (University of Paris North)

Abstract

This study deals with the link between exchange rate misalignments (ERM) and economic growth, for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies on the period 1982-2010. The estimation of equilibrium exchange rate (EER) is based on a FEER approach. The relation "misalignments-growth" is estimated using a PSTR (Panel Smooth Transition Regression) and GMM models. Our main results show that the impact of ERM on economic growth is nonlinear and asymmetric. An overvaluation has a negative impact on growth while an undervaluation sustains growth until an estimated threshold (15.5% for emerging countries and 9% for developed countries). The coefficient is weaker for emerging countries (0.02) than for developed countries (0.08). Due to non linearity and coefficient's value, the undervaluation has a positive effect on growth even beyond the threshold. We also demonstrate that the impact of ERM on growth is positive only in the case of small undervaluation for emerging countries. However, concerning developed countries, the undervaluation have a positive effect on growth even beyond the estimated threshold.

Suggested Citation

  • Nabil Aflouk & Jacques Mazier, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignments and economic growth: A threshold panel approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1333-1347.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00094
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    Cited by:

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    2. Carl Grekou, 2014. "Revisiting the nexus between currency misalignments and growth in the CFA Zone," Working Papers hal-04141364, HAL.
    3. Florian Morvillier, 2019. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Post-Print hal-02138677, HAL.
    4. Nabil Alimi & Nabil Aflouk, 2017. "The threshold effect of oil-price shocks on economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1942-1958.
    5. Yannick Kitutila W., 2024. "Estimation of the public debt threshold effects on economic growth in sub‐Saharan African countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(2), pages 377-390, June.
    6. Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2023. "Economic growth and deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 764-786.
    7. Ramos-Herrera María del Carmen, 2022. "How Equilibrium Exchange Rate Misalignments Influence on Economic Growth? Evidence for European Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 199-211, January.
    8. Morvillier, Florian, 2020. "Do currency undervaluations affect the impact of inflation on growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 275-292.
    9. DEGUENONVO, Cédric, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignment in Senegal: effect on growth," MPRA Paper 84338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "The role of exchange rate undervaluations on the inflation-growth nexus," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-15, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Florian Morvillier, 2018. "The role of exchange rate undervaluations on the inflation-growth nexus," Working Papers hal-04141804, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; exchange rate misalignments; non-linearity; PSTR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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