IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-11-00400.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating value at risk and optimal hedge ratio in Latin markets: a copula-based GARCH approach

Author

Listed:
  • Marcelo Brutti Righi

    (Universidade Federal de Santa Maria)

  • Paulo Sérgio Ceretta

    (Universidade Federal de Santa Maria)

Abstract

In this paper we use a copula-based GARCH model to estimate conditional variances and covariances of the bivariate relationships between U.S. market with Brazilian, Argentinean and Mexican markets. To that we used daily prices of S&P500, Ibovespa, Merval and IPC from January 2009 to December 2010, totaling 483 observations. The results allows to conclude that both the volatility of Latin markets, such as its dependence with the U.S. decreased in the period, resulting in lower estimates for the VaR and Hedge, compared with those based on the unconditional variance and covariance, emphasizing that after theeffects of the 2007/2008 U.S. crisis, these Latin markets can again be considered as options for international diversification for investors with assets of the U.S. market in their portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Brutti Righi & Paulo Sérgio Ceretta, 2011. "Estimating value at risk and optimal hedge ratio in Latin markets: a copula-based GARCH approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1717-1730.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00400
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2011/Volume31/EB-11-V31-I2-P157.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dufrénot, Gilles & Mignon, Valérie & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2011. "The effects of the subprime crisis on the Latin American financial markets: An empirical assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2342-2357, September.
    2. Kojadinovic, Ivan & Yan, Jun, 2010. "Modeling Multivariate Distributions with Continuous Margins Using the copula R Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 34(i09).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Paulo Sergio Ceretta, 2011. "Extreme values dependence of risk in Latin American markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 2903-2914.
    2. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Paulo Sergio Ceretta, 2012. "Global Risk Evolution and Diversification: a Copula-DCC-GARCH Model Approach," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 10(4), pages 529-550.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Song, Zhi & Mukherjee, Amitava & Zhang, Jiujun, 2021. "Some robust approaches based on copula for monitoring bivariate processes and component-wise assessment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 177-196.
    2. Arturo Cortés Aguilar, 2011. "Estimación del residual de un bono respaldado por hipotecas mediante un modelo de riesgo crédito: una comparación de resultados de la teoría de cópulas y el modelo IRB de Basilea II en datos del merca," Revista de Administración, Finanzas y Economía (Journal of Management, Finance and Economics), Tecnológico de Monterrey, Campus Ciudad de México, vol. 5(1), pages 50-64.
    3. Okhrin, Ostap & Ristig, Alexander, 2014. "Hierarchical Archimedean Copulae: The HAC Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 58(i04).
    4. Elberg, Christina & Hagspiel, Simeon, 2015. "Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 260-272.
    5. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Dora Aguilasocho-Montoya & José Álvarez-García, 2019. "Active portfolio management in the Andean countries'' stock markets with Markov-Switching GARCH models," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(PNEA), pages 601-616, Agosto 20.
    6. Berghaus, Betina & Segers, Johan, 2017. "Weak convergence of the weighted empirical beta copula process," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2017015, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    7. Punzo, Antonio & Bagnato, Luca, 2022. "Dimension-wise scaled normal mixtures with application to finance and biometry," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Ghislain Verdier, 2024. "Goodness-of-fit procedure for gamma processes," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 39(5), pages 2623-2650, July.
    9. Hofert, Marius & Mächler, Martin & McNeil, Alexander J., 2012. "Likelihood inference for Archimedean copulas in high dimensions under known margins," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 133-150.
    10. Renatas Kizys & Christian Pierdzioch, 2013. "A note on decoupling, recoupling and speculative bubble: some empirical evidence for Latin America," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(13), pages 1057-1065, July.
    11. Enkelejd Hashorva & Simone A. Padoan & Stefano Rizzelli, 2021. "Multivariate extremes over a random number of observations," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 48(3), pages 845-880, September.
    12. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Ahmed Khalifa, 2013. "Do Global Shocks Drive Investor Herds in Oil-Rich Frontier Markets?," Working Papers 819, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2013.
    13. Elisa Luciano & Jaap Spreeuw & Elena Vigna, 2012. "Evolution of coupled lives' dependency across generations and pricing impact," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 258, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    14. repec:jss:jstsof:39:i09 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Shofiqul Islam & Sonia Anand & Jemila Hamid & Lehana Thabane & Joseph Beyene, 2020. "A copula-based method of classifying individuals into binary disease categories using dependent biomarkers," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(4), pages 871-897, December.
    16. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & José Álvarez-García, 2020. "Markov-Switching Stochastic Processes in an Active Trading Algorithm in the Main Latin-American Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-23, June.
    17. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-036 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Dufrénot, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2014. "Spillover effects of the 2008 global financial crisis on the volatility of the Indian equity markets: Coupling or uncoupling? A study on sector-based data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 17-32.
    19. Steiner, Viktor & Zhu, Junyi, 2021. "A joint top income and wealth distribution," Discussion Papers 2021/3, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    20. Yang Li & Fan Wang & Ye Shen & Yichen Qin & Jiesheng Si, 2022. "Selection of mixed copula for association modeling with tied observations," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(5), pages 1127-1180, December.
    21. Kiriliouk, Anna & Segers, Johan & Tafakori, Laleh, 2018. "An estimator of the stable tail dependence function based on the empirical beta copula," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2018029, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value at risk; Hedge ratio; Copula; Latin markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00400. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.