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Do FOMC members believe in Okun's Law?

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Tillmann

    (Justus Liebig University Giessen)

Abstract

This paper uses data on forecasts for unemployment and GDP growth submitted by each individual FOMC member to uncover members' beliefs about Okuns's Law. The results suggest that the perceived relationship between unemployment and real growth weakened significantly since the mid-1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Tillmann, 2010. "Do FOMC members believe in Okun's Law?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(3), pages 2398-2404.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00392
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2010/Volume30/EB-10-V30-I3-P219.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kitov, Ivan, 2011. "Okun’s law revisited. Is there structural unemployment in developed countries?," MPRA Paper 32135, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. KARGI, Bilal, 2014. "Okun’s Law and Long Term Co-Integration Analysis for OECD Countries (1987-2012)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 119, pages 77-85.
    3. Ball, Laurence & Jalles, João Tovar & Loungani, Prakash, 2015. "Do forecasters believe in Okun’s Law? An assessment of unemployment and output forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 176-184.
    4. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Time‐Varying Relationship between Unemployment and Output: What shapes it?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 605-630, November.
    5. Davide Furceri & João Tovar Jalles & Prakash Loungani, 2020. "On the Determinants of the Okun’s Law: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(4), pages 661-700, December.
    6. Jaime Marquez & S Yanki Kalfa, 2021. "The Forecasts of Individual FOMC Members: New Evidence after Ten Years," Working Papers 2021-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP forecast; unemployment forecast; Okun's Law; Federal Reserve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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