IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-10-00358.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Efficient market hypothesis in emerging markets: Panel data evidence with multiple breaks and cross sectional dependence

Author

Listed:
  • Abd Halim Ahmad

    (Universiti Utara Malaysia)

  • Siti Nurazira Mohd Daud

    (Universiti Sains Islam Malaysia)

  • W.N.W. Azman-Saini

    (Universiti Putra Malaysia)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to re-examine whether mean reversion property hold for 15 emerging stock markets for the period 1985 to 2006. Utilizing a panel stationarity test that is able to account for multiple structural breaks and cross sectional dependence, we find that the emerging stock markets follow a random walk process. However, further analysis on individual series show that the majority of stock prices in emerging markets are governed by a mean reverting process. This result, which is inconsistent with efficient market hypothesis, suggests that past information is useful in predicting future prices in most of the markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Abd Halim Ahmad & Siti Nurazira Mohd Daud & W.N.W. Azman-Saini, 2010. "Efficient market hypothesis in emerging markets: Panel data evidence with multiple breaks and cross sectional dependence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2987-2995.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00358
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2010/Volume30/EB-10-V30-I4-P274.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Durusu-Ciftci, Dilek & Ispir, M. Serdar & Kok, Dundar, 2019. "Do stock markets follow a random walk? New evidence for an old question," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 165-175.
    2. Ushna Akber & Nabeel Muhammad, 2014. "Is Pakistan Stock Market Moving towards Weak-Form Efficiency? Evidence from The Karachi Stock Exchange and the Random Walk Nature of Free-Float of Shares of KSE 30 Index," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(6), pages 808-836, June.
    3. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Valera, Maria Luisa G., 2021. "Mean reversion in Asia-Pacific stock prices: New evidence from quantile unit root tests," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 214-230.
    4. Akber, Ushna & Muhammad, Nabeel, 2013. "Is Pakistan Stock Market moving towards Weak-form efficiency? Evidence from the Karachi Stock Exchange and the Random Walk Nature of free-float of shares of KSE 30 Index," MPRA Paper 49128, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vasudeva N. R. Murthy & Emmanuel Anoruo, 2009. "Are Per Capita Real GDP Series in African Countries Non-stationary or Non-linear? What does Empirical Evidence Reveal?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2492-2504.
    2. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2011. "The renewable energy consumption-growth nexus in Central America," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 343-347, January.
    3. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Trends in international commodity prices: Panel unit root analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 441-451.
    4. Chang, Ming-Jen & Su, Che-Yi, 2014. "The dynamic relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence from Pacific Rim countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 220-246.
    5. Degirmenci, Tunahan & Yavuz, Hakan, 2024. "Environmental taxes, R&D expenditures and renewable energy consumption in EU countries: Are fiscal instruments effective in the expansion of clean energy?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    6. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Pao Wu & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Are house prices in South Africa really nonstationary? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 32-53, January.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G7 countries: New evidence from panel cointegration with structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2331-2341, September.
    9. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & Wu, Tsung-Pao, 2017. "Purchasing Power Parity in the 34 OECD Countries: Evidence from Quantile-Based Unit Root Tests with both Smooth and Sharp Breaks," MPRA Paper 81820, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Feb 2017.
    10. Christidou, Maria & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Sharma, Abhijit, 2013. "On the stationarity of per capita carbon dioxide emissions over a century," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 918-925.
    11. Hamit-Haggar, Mahamat, 2012. "Greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis from Canadian industrial sector perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 358-364.
    12. Furkan Emirmahmutoglu & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Tolga Omay, 2020. "Is real per capita state personal income stationary? New nonlinear, asymmetric panel‐data evidence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 50-62, January.
    13. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2021. "Output-volatility reducing effects of automatic stabilizers: Policy implications for EMU member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1388-1414.
    14. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 641-647, September.
    15. Apergis, Nicholas & Chang, Tsangyao & Gupta, Rangan & Ziramba, Emmanuel, 2016. "Hydroelectricity consumption and economic growth nexus: Evidence from a panel of ten largest hydroelectricity consumers," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 318-325.
    16. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2020. "Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(2), pages 155-170, May.
    17. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2011. "Renewable and non-renewable electricity consumption–growth nexus: Evidence from emerging market economies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 5226-5230.
    18. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Loungani, Prakash & Rao, Yao, 2014. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.
    19. Joan Costa-Font & Cristina Vilaplana-Prieto, 2023. "‘Investing’ in care for old age? An examination of long-term care expenditure dynamics and its spillovers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 1-30, January.
    20. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2009. "Panel data stochastic convergence analysis of the Mexican regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 303-327, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Efficient market hypothesis; multiple breaks; cross sectional dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00358. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.