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Modeling the French Consumption Function Using SETAR Models

Author

Listed:
  • Valerie Mignon

    (University of Paris 10 - THEMA)

  • Gilles Dufrenot

    (University of Paris 12)

Abstract

We provide new estimations on aggregate consumption series in France using the framework of non-stationary threshold models. Most macroeconomists agree with the idea that, since the beginning of the seventies, the saving ratio has evolved irregularly. Such irregularities are usually interpreted as being caused by mispecification problems or measurement errors. We suggest another explanation that strengthens the role played by structural breaks caused by endogenous factors such as habit formation. In this view, we use threshold models (SETAR) to study both the dynamics of short and long term in order to account for the existence of asymmetric effects in the relationship between consumption and some of its determinants. The estimations and forecasts obtained show that the SETAR error correction model leads to better performance than other specifications such as the usual linear error correction model, the quadratic error correction model and the cubic error correction model.

Suggested Citation

  • Valerie Mignon & Gilles Dufrenot, 2004. "Modeling the French Consumption Function Using SETAR Models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(20), pages 1-16.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-04c20018
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. JAWADI Fredj, 2008. "Does nonlinear econometrics confirm the macroeconomic models of consumption?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(17), pages 1-11.
    2. Jinzhao Chen, 2012. "Crisis, Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity: Evidence from China in Transformation," PSE Working Papers halshs-00660654, HAL.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong (ed.), 2012. "The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262018234, December.
    4. Nagayasu, Jun, 2012. "The threshold consumption correlation-based approach to international capital mobility: Evidence from advanced and developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 256-263.
    5. Jawadi, Fredj & Soparnot, Richard & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "Assessing financial and housing wealth effects through the lens of a nonlinear framework," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 840-850.
    6. Yener Coskun & Nicholas Apergis & Esra Alp Coskun, 2022. "Nonlinear responses of consumption to wealth, income, and interest rate shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1293-1335, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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