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Do Electricity Demand Exhibit Chaotic Behavior?

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  • Kutluk KaÄŸan SÃœMER

    (Ä°stanbul Ãœniversitesi)

Abstract

Knowing of the chaos theory by the electric data analysis has caused the understanding of the difficulties of the balance Knowing of the chaos theory by the electric demand has caused the understanding of the difficulties of the balance in Electric demand. The applications of the chaos theory related to electric demand data have aimed to overcome these difficulties. Chaotic deterministic models with sensitive dependence on initial conditions provide a powerful tool in understanding the apparently random movements in electric demand data. Although the linear methods used for stable linear systems, generally fails at the nonlinear analysis, however, they give intuition about the problem. Due to a nonlinear variable in the difference equations describing the dynamic systems, unpredictable dynamics may occur. The chaos that expresses an irregular condition can be characterized by "sensitive dependence on initial conditions". We employ three tests. The BDS test, Correlation Dimension test and the Neural Network test. The results from these tests provide very weak evidence for the presence of chaos in crossing the hourly electric demand. In this study, the methods for the chaotic analysis of the time series, obtained based on the discrete or continuous measurements of a variable are investigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Kutluk KaÄŸan SÃœMER, 2016. "Do Electricity Demand Exhibit Chaotic Behavior?," Eurasian Eononometrics, Statistics and Emprical Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 64-84, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eas:econst:v:4:y:2016:i:4:p:64-84
    DOI: 10.17740/eas.stat.2016�V4�06
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