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Forecasting of Unemployment Rate For Turkey: Markov Chains Aproach

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  • Cihan Çiftçi

    (Istanbul University)

Abstract

Markov chains has been extensively using in economic researches as a stochastic based forcasting tool. In this study, non-institutional unemployment rate of Turkey has been estimated for the year of 2016 via markov chains method. For this purpose, non-institutional unemployment rates between the years of 1996 and 2014, that TÜà K released has been used. In consequence, it is forecast that the unemployment rate remains above 6,5 points in possibility of 94%, below 9,9 points in possibility of 79%, below 10 points in possibility of 80% and below 11 points in possibility of 88%. In other words, unemployment rate remains at a single digit value in 2016.

Suggested Citation

  • Cihan Çiftçi, 2016. "Forecasting of Unemployment Rate For Turkey: Markov Chains Aproach," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 2(02), pages 657-665, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eas:buseco:v:02:y:2016:i:02:p:657-665
    DOI: 10.17740/eas.econ.2016-MSEMP-140
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