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Is There A North American Business Cycle?. An Analysis Of The Period 1963-2002

Author

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  • Rosmy, Jean Louis
  • Daniel, Simons

Abstract

This paper investigates the business cycle linkages between Canada, Mexico, and the United States by examining the significant features of the three business cycles for the period 1963 to 2002. It analyzes the correlation between the cyclical fluctuations in these countries and tries to determine the existence of commonality and symmetry between the individual cycles. Using Markov-switching regimes in a multivariate framework and data on industrial production index and real GDP, we discover some synchronization of the business cycles in North America. Mexico and Canada individually share a common cycle with the U.S. but not with each other meaning there are key effects of increased integration between these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosmy, Jean Louis & Daniel, Simons, 2007. "Is There A North American Business Cycle?. An Analysis Of The Period 1963-2002," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 109-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:7:y:2007:i:2_9
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    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/aeid729.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramon A. CASTILLO PONCE & Ramon de Jesus RAMIREZ ACOSTA, 2008. "Economic Integration In North America," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(2), pages 111-122.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    E32; F43; F47; C32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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