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A Bayesian Approach for the Analysis of Macroeconomic Dynamic in Case of Emerging Countries-Monetary and Fiscal Policy Model

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  • Georgiana-Alina Ionita

    (Academy of Economic Studies)

Abstract

The paper proposes the analysis of the main drivers of the economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe, in three emerging countries: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, with a development stage similar with that of Romania. Given the vulnerabilities of the Central and Eastern Europe region at the beginning and during the recent global economic and financial crisis, there is an increased interest to identify the models that can describe the principalcharacteristics of the Central and Eastern Europe macroeconomic variables: gross domestic product, investment, wages and salaries, inflation, hours worked, consumption and themonetary variable- interest rate. Moreover, another scope is to analyze the frictions that describe the evolution of the seven data series, as the stochastic dynamic of the macroeconomic model is driven by orthogonal structural shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgiana-Alina Ionita, 2016. "A Bayesian Approach for the Analysis of Macroeconomic Dynamic in Case of Emerging Countries-Monetary and Fiscal Policy Model," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(5), pages 51-69, OCTOBER.
    • Handle: RePEc:dug:actaec:y:2016:i:5:p:51-69
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    File URL: http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/oeconomica/article/view/3576/3591
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
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    3. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    4. Kimball, Miles S, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1241-1277, November.
    5. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
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    Keywords

    monetary; policy; frictions; shocks;
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