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An AHP-Based Composite Cyclical-Performance Index

Author

Listed:
  • Micheal P. Niemira

    (Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd., New York)

Abstract

Traditional-NBER methods for compiling a diverse basket of cyclical-economic indicators into a summary composite measure changed very little over the last fifty years. Although improvements to factor standardisation and trend calculations have been implemented by practitioners, the basic concept remains unaltered or" traditional". On the other hand, newer statistical techniques for spotting cyclical turning points have been advocated as superior to the traditional-NBER method, if the user is willing to assume a certain underlying model structure in lieu of the eclectic and simple structure of a composite index. A middle ground exists that retains the simplicity and flexibility of the traditional-NBER indicator method, but extends the current cyclical-indicator methodology using an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for time-variant component weighting. This paper demonstrates the value of an AHP-based composite indicator.

Suggested Citation

  • Micheal P. Niemira, 2001. "An AHP-Based Composite Cyclical-Performance Index," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 241-250, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:241-250
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Niemira, Michael P. & Saaty, Thomas L., 2004. "An Analytic Network Process model for financial-crisis forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 573-587.
    2. Ziwei Shu & Ramón Alberto Carrasco & Javier Portela García-Miguel & Manuel Sánchez-Montañés, 2022. "Multiple Scenarios of Quality of Life Index Using Fuzzy Linguistic Quantifiers: The Case of 85 Countries in Numbeo," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-28, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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