IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dse/indecr/v36y2001i1p171-188.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Cycle Research Institute and Pennsylvania State University

Author

Listed:
  • Philip A. Klein

    (Lagging Indicators Forgotten Aids to Forecasting)

Abstract

Leading, coincident, and lagging indicators continue to corroborate Mitchell’s view that they reflect crucial sequential changes in economic activity. Lagging indicators, most especially in inverted form, exhibit long if variable leads at peaks, thereby becoming the first anticipation of a future peak. Evidence confirming past troughs is also the first sign of the next if still distant peak. Lagging indicators are also useful in forecasting inflation rate turns, leading at inflation cycle peaks by about six months in both the U.S. and Sweden. Our study confirms Geoffrey Moore’s old prediction that the lagging index would prove useful in assessing cyclical changes in economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip A. Klein, 2001. "Economic Cycle Research Institute and Pennsylvania State University," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 171-188, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:171-188
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dse:indecr:v:36:y:2001:i:1:p:171-188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pami Dua (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deudein.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.