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DIW's 2009 Fall Forecast: Key Economic Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Dreger
  • Kerstin Bernoth
  • Franziska Bremus
  • Karl Brenke
  • Roberta Colavecchio
  • Burcu Erdogan
  • Stefan Kooths
  • Vladimir Kuzin
  • Dorothea Lucke
  • Charlotte Senftleben
  • Sebastian Weber

Abstract

Following an unprecedented contraction in GDP, the German economy returns to expansion. Growth will be modest in 2010, however, as the forces of the recovery are not yet stable. This is the key result of the Autumn outlook of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). DIW expects Germany's GDP to grow by 1.3% in 2010. While this figure is higher than the forecast for the entire euro zone (+0.8%), it is not cause for celebration: Next year's growth is too low to compensate for the decline in output since the start of the crisis. By the end of 2010, Germany's GDP will have returned to its level at the beginning of 2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Kerstin Bernoth & Franziska Bremus & Karl Brenke & Roberta Colavecchio & Burcu Erdogan & Stefan Kooths & Vladimir Kuzin & Dorothea Lucke & Charlotte Senftleben & Sebastian Weber, 2009. "DIW's 2009 Fall Forecast: Key Economic Trends," Weekly Report, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 5(31), pages 216-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwrp:wr5-31
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic outlook; Business cycle forecast; Consumption; Foreign trade; Labour market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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