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Deutsche Industrie: durchwachsene Lage, positive Aussichten

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  • Dorothea Lucke

Abstract

During the first nine months of this year, German industry almost fully compensated for the decline in production of late 2012 and, in 2013, will only just fall short of last year's figures, by an estimated 0.5 percent. Should the economic recovery in the euro area gain momentum as anticipated for next year, an increase in industrial production of three percent is possible. Recent significant improvements in the global economy in particular are having a positive impact on the manufacturing sector's order situation. This is especially true of the mechanical engineering and automotive industries, two key sectors of the German economy. Die deutsche Industrie hat den Produktionsrückgang vom Jahresende 2012 in den ersten neun Monaten des laufenden Jahres fast wieder wettgemacht. Das Vorjahresniveau wird sie im Gesamtjahr 2013 dennoch knapp verfehlen, um voraussichtlich rund 0,5 Prozent. Sollte der Aufschwung im Euroraum im kommenden Jahr wie erwartet an Breite gewinnen, ist eine Steigerung der Industrieproduktion von drei Prozent möglich. Positiv bemerkbar macht sich vor allem das zuletzt deutlich verbesserte weltwirtschaftliche Umfeld, das für eine Erholung der Auftragslage im verarbeitenden Gewerbe sorgt. Das gilt insbesondere für den Maschinen- und Kraftwagenbau und damit zwei Schlüsselindustrien der deutschen Wirtschaft.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorothea Lucke, 2013. "Deutsche Industrie: durchwachsene Lage, positive Aussichten," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(47), pages 16-25.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:80-47-3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasts; business cycles; industrial production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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