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Das gegenwärtige Niedrigzinsumfeld aus Sicht der Sparkassen

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  • Michael Wolgast

Abstract

For many years, in most industrial countries, there has been a trend of declining nominal and real interest rates. Still, the current environment of extremely low or even negative rates prevailing in the Euro area and in Germany is an exceptional situation without historical precedent. The current interest rate levels can to some extent be explained by the current macroeconomic environment in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis of 2008, even if an alleged “savings glut” is not a conclusive explanation in itself. Still, the ECBs monetary policy has a strong impact on nominal and real interest rate levels, too. At the same time, it proves increasingly powerless or even counterproductive with respect to overcoming the current economic weakness in the Euro area. The current environment of extremely low interest rate levels puts an enormous pressure on Sparkassen and other providers of financial services in Germany. Still more serious, a lasting environment of close-to-zero interest rates will have profound negative consequences for the financial system as a whole. Instead of the traditional German values of precaution, provision and savings—the Sparkultur, which has for more than 200 years been propagated by the Sparkassen—Germany and the Euro area might end up in a macroeconomic situation similar to that currently prevailing in Japan. Der seit vielen Jahren zu beobachtende Trend abnehmender nominaler und realer Zinssätze in den wichtigsten Industrieländern ist im Euroraum und in Deutschland zuletzt in ein historisch beispielloses Umfeld niedrigster und negativer Zinsen gemündet. Eher als auf eine vermeintliche „Sparschwemme“ sind die niedrigen Zinsen dabei auch darauf zurückzuführen, dass die Folgen der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise ab 2008 noch immer nicht überwunden sind. Doch auch die Geldpolitik der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) hat einen erheblichen Einfluss auf das nominale und reale Zinsniveau. Gleichzeitig erweist sie sich als zunehmend machtlos oder sogar kontraproduktiv bei der Überwindung der aktuellen Wirtschaftsschwäche. Das gegenwärtige Niedrigstzinsniveau setzt Sparkassen und andere Finanzdienstleister in Deutschland einem erheblichen Anpassungsdruck aus. Noch schwerer wiegt aber, dass ein anhaltendes Niedrigstzinsumfeld auch das Finanzsystem insgesamt nachhaltig beschädigt. Anstelle der traditionellen deutschen Sparkultur und des Vorsorgegedankens, wie er seit über 200 Jahren etwa durch die Sparkassen vertreten wird, droht eine Situation ähnlich der in Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Wolgast, 2016. "Das gegenwärtige Niedrigzinsumfeld aus Sicht der Sparkassen," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 85(1), pages 11-29.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:85-1-2
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.85.1.11
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Central Bank; interest rates; savings; financial institutions; Savings Banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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