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Eine fiskalische Gesamtbilanz der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland

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  • Holger Bonin

Abstract

Dieser Beitrag untersucht die fiskalischen Gesamtwirkungen der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland mit Hilfe der demographisch basierten langfristigen Budgetmethode der Generationenbilanzierung. Zunächst wird für den Anfangsbestand der Einheimischen und Zuwanderer der Gegenwartswert aller individuell über den Lebenszyklus geleisteten Steuern und empfangenen Transfers abgeschätzt. Auf dieser Grundlage wird unter Berücksichtigung der marginalen Bereitstellungskosten öffentlicher Güter gezeigt, dass Einwanderung die öffentlichen Haushalte intertemporal direkt entlastet, wenn künftige Zuwanderer die fiskalische Leistungsfähigkeit der ansässigen Bevölkerung zügig erreichen. Darüber hinaus entstehen indirekte Vorteile für die einheimische Bevölkerung, weil die gegenwärtige Finanzpolitik langfristig nicht tragfähig ist. Eine Verbreiterung der Besteuerungsbasis durch Zuwanderung kann die zum Erhalt der staatlichen Zahlungsfähigkeit erforderliche Erhöhung der individuellen Finanzierungsbeiträge zum Staatshaushalt spürbar reduzieren.

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  • Holger Bonin, 2002. "Eine fiskalische Gesamtbilanz der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(2), pages 215-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:71-20-4
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.71.2.215
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    2. Thomas K. Bauer, 2002. "Migration, Sozialstaat und Zuwanderungspolitik," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(2), pages 249-271.
    3. Brücker, Herbert & Ringer, Sebastian, 2008. "Ausländer in Deutschland: Vergleichsweise schlecht qualifiziert," IAB-Kurzbericht 200801, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Paweł Kaczmarczyk, 2013. "Are immigrants a burden for the state budget? Review paper," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/79, European University Institute.
    5. Margret Wintermantel & Matthias Kleiner & Jürgen Mlynek & Leonore Sauer & Herbert Brücker, 2008. ""Brain Drain": Gibt es in Deutschland zu wenig Möglichkeiten für Spitzenforscher?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(04), pages 03-18, February.
    6. Kaczmarczyk, Pawel, 2015. "Burden or Relief? Fiscal Impacts of Recent Ukrainian Migration to Poland," IZA Discussion Papers 8779, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Krieger, Tim, 2005. "Renten und Zuwanderung: Ein Überblick über neue Ergebnisse der Forschung," Arbeitspapiere der Nordakademie 2005-04, Nordakademie - Hochschule der Wirtschaft.
    8. Hinte, Holger & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2014. "Does the Calculation Hold? The Fiscal Balance of Migration to Denmark and Germany," IZA Policy Papers 87, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Marcus Dittrich & Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Henschel & Gunther Markwardt & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Marcel Thum, 2004. "Demographische Entwicklung im Freistaat Sachsen : Analyse und Strategien zum Bevölkerungsrückgang auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ; Gutachten im Auftrag der Sächsischen Staatskanzlei," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36, May.
    10. Biavaschi, Costanza & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2013. "Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries: Country Study on Germany," IZA Policy Papers 72, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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