IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v37y2017i6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of contraception on fertility: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?

Author

Listed:
  • John Bongaarts

    (Population Council)

Abstract

Background: Cross-sectional analyses of the relationship between contraceptive prevalence and the total fertility rate of developing countries show the expected strong negative correlation. However, this correlation is much weaker in Sub-Saharan Africa than in the developing world as a whole. Objective: This paper aims to explain the unexpected weak effect of contraceptive use on fertility in sub-Sharan African countries by using different regression models to obtain unbiased effects. Methods: Using DHS survey data from 40 developing countries, the analysis consists of three steps: 1) examine the conventional cross-sectional TFR-CPR relationship by region at the time of the latest available surveys, 2) remove known technical flaws in the comparisons of fertility and contraceptive prevalence and 3) analyze multiple observations of TFR and CPR per country using pooled OLS and fixed effect regressions. Results: The conventional cross-sectional analyses produce biased results in part because technical factors, in particular post-partum overlap, create a downward bias in the effect of prevalence on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, and more importantly, the cross-sectional regression OLS parameters have a bias due to confounding country fixed effects. Technical adjustments and the use of fixed effect models remove these biases. Conclusions: A rise in contraceptive prevalence among fecund women has the same average effect on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa as in other regions of the developing world. Contribution: This study solves a long-standing demographic puzzle and reassures policymakers and family planning program managers.

Suggested Citation

  • John Bongaarts, 2017. "The effect of contraception on fertility: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(6), pages 129-146.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:37:y:2017:i:6
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol37/6/37-6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2017.37.6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Bongaarts, 2015. "Modeling the fertility impact of the proximate determinants: Time for a tune-up," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(19), pages 535-560.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pascaline Dupas & Seema Jayachandran & Adriana Lleras-Muney & Pauline Rossi, 2024. "The Negligible Effect of Free Contraception on Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Burkina Faso," NBER Working Papers 32427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Daphne H. Liu & Adrian E. Raftery, 2020. "How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(3), pages 409-441, September.
    3. Pedzisai Ndagurwa & Clifford Odimegwu, 2019. "Decomposition of Zimbabwe’s stalled fertility change: a two-sex approach to estimating education and employment effects," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 35-63, March.
    4. David A. Sánchez-Páez & José Antonio Ortega, 2018. "Adolescent contraceptive use and its effects on fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(45), pages 1359-1388.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rotimi Felix Afolabi & Martin Enock Palamuleni, 2022. "Influence of Maternal Education on Second Childbirth Interval Among Women in South Africa: Rural-Urban Differential Using Survival Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    2. Jamal Abdul Nasir & Sohail Akhtar & Syed Arif Ahmed Zaidi & Andleeb Rani & Hina Bano & Andrew Hinde, 2019. "Is recent Afghanistan survey data suitable for fertility analysis? A regional investigation based on fertility inhibiting determinants," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-14, October.
    3. David A Sánchez-Páez & José Antonio Ortega, 2019. "Reported patterns of pregnancy termination from Demographic and Health Surveys," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(8), pages 1-25, August.
    4. Caroline Krafft & Elizabeth Kula & Maia Sieverding, 2021. "An investigation of Jordan’s fertility stall and resumed decline: The role of proximate determinants," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(19), pages 605-652.
    5. Pedzisai Ndagurwa & Clifford Odimegwu, 2019. "Decomposition of Zimbabwe’s stalled fertility change: a two-sex approach to estimating education and employment effects," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 35-63, March.
    6. Roch Millogo & Clémentine Rossier, 2022. "Fertility Transition in Dakar, Nairobi, and Ouagadougou Since the 1970s: An Identical Reduction at All Ages Through Modern Contraception?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(5), pages 2115-2142, October.
    7. Frank Götmark & Malte Andersson, 2023. "Achieving sustainable population: Fertility decline in many developing countries follows modern contraception, not economic growth," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 1606-1617, June.
    8. Laili Rahayuwati & Ikeu Nurhidayah & Rindang Ekawati & Habsyah Saparidah Agustina & Dadang Suhenda & Dean Rosmawati & Vira Amelia, 2023. "Determinant Factors of Post-Partum Contraception among Women during COVID-19 in West Java Province, Indonesia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-10, January.
    9. Jocelyn E. Finlay & Iván Mejía-Guevara & Yoko Akachi, 2016. "Delayed marriage, contraceptive use, and breastfeeding: Fertility patterns over time and wealth quintiles in sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Thirunaukarasu Subramaniam & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Erez Yerushalmi & Evelyn Shyamala Devadason & Mazlan Majid, 2018. "Determinants of Infant Mortality in Older ASEAN Economies," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 397-415, February.
    11. Dalomi Bahan & Latif Dramani, 2019. "Socioeconomic Status and Fertility Decline in Burkina Faso, 2003-2015," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 56-70, March.
    12. Bruno Arpino & Jordi Gumà-Lao & Albert Julià, 2018. "Family histories and the demography of grandparenthood," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(42), pages 1105-1150.
    13. David A. Sánchez-Páez & José Antonio Ortega, 2018. "Adolescent contraceptive use and its effects on fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(45), pages 1359-1388.
    14. Yoonjoung Choi & Madeleine Short Fabic & Jacob Adetunji, 2018. "Does age-adjusted measurement of contraceptive use better explain the relationship between fertility and contraception?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 39(45), pages 1227-1240.
    15. Yoko Akachi & Jocelyn Finlay & Iván Mejía-Guevara, 2016. "Delayed marriage, contraceptive use, and breastfeeding: Fertility patterns over time and wealth quintiles in sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 043, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Canning, David & Mabeu, Marie Christelle & Pongou, Roland, 2020. "Colonial origins and fertility: can the market overcome history?," MPRA Paper 112496, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; contraceptive use; sub-Saharan Africa; fixed effects; regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:37:y:2017:i:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.