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How many old people have ever lived?

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Sánchez-Romero

    (Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften)

  • Alexia Prskawetz

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna))

  • Dalkhat Ediev

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Gustav Feichtinger

    (Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften)

Abstract

Background: Uninformed generalizations about how many elderly people have ever lived, based on a poor understanding of demography, are found in a surprising number of important publications. Objective: We extend the methodology applied to the controversial question “how many people have ever been born?” initiated by Fucks, Winkler, and Keyfitz, to the proportion of people who have ever reached a certain age y and are alive today (denoted as π(y, T ))). Methods: We first analyze the fraction π(y, T )) by using demographic data based on UN estimates. Second, we show the main mathematical properties of π(y, T )) by age and over time. Third, we complete our analysis by using alternative population models. Results: We estimate that the proportion who have ever been over 65 that are alive today (as of 2010) ranges between 5.5 and 9.5%. We extend the formal demographic literature by considering the fraction of interest in two frequently referred models: the stable and hyperbolic growth populations. Conclusions: We show that statements claiming half of all people who have ever reached the age of 65 are alive today ranges would never be attainable, neither theoretically nor empirically, according to existing data. Contribution: We have produced for the first time a harmonized reconstruction of the human population by age throughout history. For a given contemporaneous time T, we demonstrate analytically and numerically that π(y, T )) is nonmonotonic in age y. For a given age y, we show tthat π(y, T) may also be nonmonotonic with respect to T.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Alexia Prskawetz & Dalkhat Ediev & Gustav Feichtinger, 2017. "How many old people have ever lived?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(54), pages 1667-1702.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:36:y:2017:i:54
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2017.36.54
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathan Keyfitz, 1966. "How many people have lived on the earth?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(2), pages 581-582, June.
    2. Joel E. Cohen, 2014. "Is the fraction of people ever born who are currently alive rising or falling?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(56), pages 1561-1570.
    3. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    4. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    people ever lived; elderly; population aging; formal demography;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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